MDP has a narrow chance of winning election 2013

According to the statistics of Election Commission MDP is the largest political party in the Maldives. However, it does not guarantee a win for MDP in the upcoming election in 2013. There are many reasons for this. Firstly, many people do not vote according to their membership in a party. Secondly, there is a large portion of eligible voters who are not affiliated to any political and they usually decide the winner.

During the last presidential election in 2008 almost all MDP members threw their support behind their leadership. When they only managed to secure only 25 per cent of the votes, how could we expect it could be better this time round when there is an obvious divide among the membership? No, doubt that there is a divide of thoughts. This did not happen after Mr. Nasheed resigned but during his rule. There were many who were not happy among MDP membership due to mismangement and corruption allegations.

Mr Nasheed is one of the youngest rulers we have seen. He was very active and held a good vision for the country and its people. We had wanted to do many things to uplift the condition of the people. But what many did not like was his approach and unable to deliver most of the promises. He had good blueprints of the plans but he had not be very successful in implementing them. Even those he managed to succeed was tangled with corruption allegations and unwise approaches.

Assandha, for instance, was a very good move. While everyone liked it and ready to give him the due credit, many yet doubted it was not sustainable. It is already staining the state budget, which is hugely deficit. The line of people queuing up at the clinic and hospitals is not getting any shorter as days pass by. Private companies are taking advantage of this social scheme at the cost of average citizen.

On top of all these, the transition of power has been a quite contraversial issue. While some stood behind Mr Nasheed, many MDP members have either foreshaken him or started not to trust him due to sebsequent twisted narratives about his resignation. In the middle of this, many internal problems within the party has surfaced. The influence of a few rogue members within the party has become too obvious. The power of the elected leadership and internal democracy is being questioned by many.

At a time when the opposition is united against MDP and the membership is divided between the elected leadership and Mr Nasheed, what chance does Mr Nasheed stand in winning an election? Naturally, for Mr Nasheed to win an election he must have support within the party as well as outside the party. This is the only way to ensure that he would get more than 50% of the votes. MDP's only chance is to get that percentage in the first round.

So, how can MDP win the upcoming election in 2013? The answer lies in strengthening the party's internal democracy, building the trust of of the memership and uniting the whole membership behind an elected leadership. Then, come out and make reasonable arguments to win the trust of people not affiliated with any party. Believe me, A sympathy vote - the strategy being used by Nasheed - will get the party no where.